A critical Social Security change impacting monthly benefits is at risk because of the government shutdown

As top congressional Republican and Democratic leaders dig in their heels—a signal that the ongoing federal government shutdown may continue for a while—many older Americans are wondering if they will still get their Social Security checks and are questioning how a prolonged showdown will affect their future benefits.

Currently, thousands of federal employees are working without pay, and President Donald Trump is threatening mass federal layoffs.

During the shutdown, the Social Security Administration (SSA) is continuing to issue retirement and disability benefits, but is furloughing 12% of its staff, per USA Today. Medicare and Medicaid payments are also continuing for now.

However, the furlough could delay the SSA’s announcement, scheduled for next week on October 15, on how much Social Security checks will increase in 2026 as a result of cost-of-living adjustments, or COLA.

That increase is based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) inflation numbers for September, due to come out October 15. The problem is that all of the bureau’s 2,055 employees, except one person, have been furloughed, and according to the Labor Department’s shutdown plans, that report “will likely be delayed if the lapse is prolonged,” USA Today reported.

Without the BLS crunching the numbers and releasing September’s inflation report, COLA can’t be calculated.

Social Security checks are estimated to increase by about 2.7%, according to the Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan seniors group—which, for an average retirement check of $2,007, would mean another $54 per month.

The White House has said mass layoffs of federal workers will start if President Donald Trump decides negotiations are “absolutely going nowhere.” That would be a way to force the hand of congressional Democrats, by threatening American government workers’ jobs and benefits.

Meanwhile, the Senate is currently battling it out to advance a bill that would fund the government to stay open through November 21.