Are we going to have a recession? CEOs don’t think so—in fact, many say the economy will grow

More American CEOs are optimistic about the nation’s economy ahead of July’s major trade deadline than they were in the last few months, following the beginning of President Donald Trump’s tariff wars, according to this month’s CEO Confidence Index survey from the Chief Executive Group.

On Monday, the US and China restarted trade talks in London, following talks between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping last week. The U.S. is trying to speed up negotiations before Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs go back into effect on July 9 after a 90-day pause.

CEOs and business leaders in the United States are also less likely to say the country is headed toward a recession, according to the survey data.

While some 62% of CEOs predicted a recession within 6 months back in April, now less than half of that, or 30%, forecast either a mild or severe recession over the next six months. The latest CEO Confidence Index survey polled 277 U.S. CEOs just last week on June 3 and 4.

Other key takeaways: 40% of those CEOs polled expected the U.S. economy to grow; while only 23% held that view back in April. In fact, in June, 51% of those CEOs polled said they expect conditions to continue to improve as trade negotiations settle.

The monthly survey first began in 2002, and includes several data points that show how U.S. business leaders view the economy.