Emmy Predictions: Comedy Series — ‘The Studio’ Has the Lead, But Does It Have the Last Laugh?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Outstanding Comedy Series Commentary (Updated May 29, 2025): While Apple TV+’s “The Studio” has maintained frontrunner status through most of Phase 1, palpable surges from returning heavyweights like FX’s “The Bear” and HBO Max’s “Hacks” are still in the mix. I’ve had “The Studio” pegged as the presumptive leader since its premiere — blending industry satire with genuine smart writing in a way that feels tailor-made for voters. But it’s worth remembering that this category often rewards what’s buzzy, not just what’s polished.

ABC’s “Abbott Elementary,” the lone network comedy in the top half of the chart, still has plenty of goodwill. But after consecutive strong seasons, signs of voter fatigue could be creeping in.

Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building” has the prestige and the performances, but there’s a risk it becomes one of those safe, perennial nominees that gets name-checked without passion.

Meanwhile, “Shrinking” might actually be Apple’s most heartfelt entry, though it hasn’t caught the same cultural tailwind.

FX’s final season of “What We Do in the Shadows” remains a fan favorite, but its genre leanings may keep it from ascending much higher.

Netflix’s most viable contender appears to be “Nobody Wants This,” although the true spoiler could be “The Four Seasons.” Currently sitting just outside the projected lineup, it plays broader than you’d expect — and sometimes that’s all it takes when voters are looking for comfort over risk.

The Emmys eligibility period ends on May 31. Nomination voting runs from June 12 to June 23, with official nominations set to be announced July 15.

(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)

And the Predicted Contenders Are:

More Information (Comedy Series)

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.