Mining giants squeeze dividends with an eye toward funding growth

So far this earnings season, large miners are paying out their lowest dividends in years, as mineral prices slip and they need to retain cash for their massive development projects, while trying to keep a lid on costs.

Rio Tinto, Anglo American and Glencore have all reported lower half year earnings, with BHP expected to continue the trend when it reports on Aug 19.

After years of strong China-driven profits backed by Covid-19- and Russia-linked supply snags, they are now operating against a backdrop of lower profits, high capital spending plans, or a full-scale restructuring in the case of Anglo American.

That is capping what the miners are willing to return to shareholders, analysts and fund managers said.

Prices of key commodities iron ore and coal have dropped around 13 per cent since the start of the year. Miners are instead doubling down on projects for copper, which is up 8 per cent this year on expected energy transition demand, but it still remains too small a part of their portfolios to offset losses elsewhere.

Many of the large diversified miners are in the most capital intensive stage of development they have been in for a long time, and that is unlikely to change in the near term, said Brenton Saunders, a portfolio manager at Pendal Group in Sydney.

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“In the absence of a move higher in commodity prices, payouts are likely going to stay relatively depressed,” Saunders added.

Growth projects by the majors include BHP’s Jansen potash mine in Canada where it will spend up to US$7.4 billion for the first stage of development, from a previous estimate of US$5.7 billion, it said last month.

Rio Tinto expects to spend more than US$13 billion on iron ore mines to replace depleted ones in Western Australia in the next three years alone. Anglo is busy selling off its coal and diamond divisions while Glencore has been hit by low prices for its key commodity coal.

Glencore on Wednesday reported a 14 per cent drop in first-half earnings due to weaker coal prices and lower copper production, and an increase in net debt. The company kept its dividend unchanged and did not announce further share buybacks.

It said would it maintain its base dividend of US$0.05 per share, equal to the previous half-year period, which was its lowest since 2021.

Rio Tinto last week reported its smallest first-half underlying profit since 2020 and lowest interim dividend in seven years, given the drop in iron ore prices and rising costs at its Australian business.

Anglo American reported a US$1.9 billion loss in the first half of 2025, reduced its dividend to the lowest in at least five years, and said restructuring efforts continued.

Analysts expect BHP will set its full-year payout at US$1.02, which would be the lowest in eight years. REUTERS