November Swiss Watch’s 52 Percent Export Slump to the U.S. Reflects Tariff Rollercoaster

PARIS – It’s the darker months of the year, including for Swiss watch exports.

Shipments from the country fell 7.3 percent to 2.2 billion Swiss francs in November, according to tallies published Thursday by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry.

“One month from the end of the financial year, the cumulative decline is now 2.2 percent,” the organization said.

After the U.S. tariffs rollercoaster this year, which saw levies of 31 percent announced in April, rise up to 39 percent in the summer and fall back to 15 percent with a retroactive effect to mid-November in early December, exports to the largest market for Swiss-made timepieces fell 52.3 percent in the month.

It also shrank to an 8.9 percent share of the global market, where it previously sat in the low teens. Although striking, it does not reflect a lack of appetite for Swiss watches in the U.S., but the consequences of anticipated shipments made in April and to a lesser extent in July. Companies are also likely delaying further shipments to ensure these come in after the lowest tariff has been applied.

The U.K. and Hong Kong, which has been showing signs of recovery since September, grew 7.9 and 3.1 percent respectively, while Singapore also rose by 4.9 percent.

Meanwhile, China fell to the sixth place, the lowest position it has occupied in the post-pandemic era, with a 3.2 percent contraction. In a research note, Bernstein luxury analyst Luca Solca noted that “the sequential deceleration from however is expected given the presence of the Golden Week holiday in the prior month.”

In the first 11 months of the year, China still remains in third position, now behind Japan.

Solca pointed out the slowly reversing decline in year-to-date exports to the market. “A return to robust industry growth will ultimately depend on China,” he added. “A return to growth for Swiss watch exports to China this month offers some green shoots.”

Other markets such as the United Arab Emirates, in seventh position in the monthly ranking, boomed 20.6 percent. A mixed picture emerged from the European Union’s countries, with France slipping 0.4 percent, Germany by 8.1 percent while Italy rose by the same percentage.

India, touted as the next Eldorado for luxury and currently sitting in the 18th position by market size with a 30.3 million Swiss francs weight, saw a mid-single digit decline.

All material categories shank in the month, with the “other materials” category impacted most of all, slumping nearly 20 percent in volume and 11.8 percent in value. Smaller categories such as bi-metallic and precious metal watches also shrank in double digits in unit numbers while “other metals” recorded the largest slump in proportion, falling 12.6 percent.

Other than watches sitting between 200 and 500 Swiss francs at export price, which saw a 6.8 percent uptick, all other price segments declined in volume and value. The federation placed the decline in value at 7.8 percent overall.