Oil falls amid bearish Trump tariff outlook

Oil prices fell more than 2 per cent on Thursday, as investors weighed the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on global economic growth.

Brent crude futures settled at US$68.64 a barrel, down US$1.55, or 2.21 per cent. US West Texas Intermediate crude finished at US$66.57 a barrel, down by US$1.81, or 2.65 per cent.

On Wednesday, Trump threatened Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, with a punitive 50 per cent tariff on exports to the US, pressuring his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva over Brazil’s trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro over charges of plotting a coup to stop Lula from taking office in 2023.

On Thursday, Lula called a meeting with ministers, a day after hinting at reciprocal measures in a post on social media.

Trump has also announced plans for tariffs on copper, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

His administration sent tariff letters to the Philippines, Iraq and others, adding to over a dozen letters this week including to powerhouse US suppliers South Korea and Japan.

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Trump’s history of back-pedalling on tariffs has caused the market to become less reactive to such announcements, said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

“People are largely in wait-and-see mode, given the erratic nature of policymaking and the flexibility the administration is showing around tariffs,” Tchilinguirian said.

Policymakers remain worried about inflationary pressures from Trump’s tariffs, with only “a couple” of officials at the Federal Reserve’s June 17-18 meeting saying they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday showed.

Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and can slow demand for oil.

Opec+ oil producers are set to approve another big output boost for September, as they complete unwinding voluntary production cuts by eight members and the United Arab Emirates’ move to a larger quota.

However, Opec+ indicated it may pause output hikes in October because of a possible peak in oil demand, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.

“Earlier fears of reaching ‘peak oil‘ have not materialised, and rising prices incentivise the discovery of new oil sources, both domestically and offshore,” Flynn wrote in a note on Thursday.

Elsewhere, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held “frank” talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in which he expressed Washington’s frustration around a lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine.

Trump said recently he was considering a bill that would impose tougher sanctions on Russia. REUTERS