Oil falls slightly ahead of expected Opec+ output increase

Oil futures slipped slightly in thin holiday trading on Friday (Jul 4), as the market looked ahead to this weekend’s Opec+ meeting and the likelihood that member countries will decide to raise output.

Brent crude futures settled down 50 US cents, or 0.7 per cent, at US$68.30 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 50 US cents, or 0.75 per cent, at US$66.50 just before 1300 EDT (1700 GMT). Trade was sparse due to the US Independence Day holiday.

Brent settled about 0.8 per cent higher than last Friday’s close and WTI was around 1.5 per cent higher. Eight Opec+ countries are likely to make another oil output increase for August at a meeting on Saturday in their push to boost market share. The meeting was moved forward a day to Saturday.

“If the group decides to increase its output by another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, as expected, for the fourth successive month, oil balance estimates for the second half of the year will be reassessed and will suggest accelerated swelling in global oil reserves,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

“There seems to be some profit-taking on concerns that Opec will raise production by more than expected,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures group. He added that investors seem to be in wait-and-see mode, getting ready to react to Opec’s move while also watching for implications of US President Donald Trump’s massive package of tax and spending cuts, which was set to be signed into law at a ceremony at the White House on Friday.

Crude prices also came under pressure from a report on US news website Axios, which said the United States was planning to resume nuclear talks with Iran next week, while Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remained committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Meanwhile, uncertainty over US tariff policy was back in the spotlight as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levies approaches. European Union negotiators have failed so far to achieve a breakthrough in trade negotiations with the Trump administration and may now seek to extend the status quo to avoid tariff hikes, six EU diplomats briefed on the talks said on Friday.

Separately, Barclays said it had raised its Brent oil price forecast by US$6 to US$72 a barrel for 2025 and by US$10 to US$70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved demand outlook. REUTERS