Oscar Predictions: Adapted Screenplay — ‘Hamnet,’ ‘One Battle After Another’ and ‘Bugonia’ Lead a Season of Visionary Reinventions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Adapted Screenplay Commentary (Updated Oct. 9, 2025): Literary prestige and directorial ingenuity encapsulate this year’s adapted screenplay category.

“Hamnet,” adapted by Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao from O’Farrell’s acclaimed novel, stands as a fusion of beauty, fidelity and cinematic imagination, merging Zhao’s visual poetry with O’Farrell’s emotional precision. In contrast, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” inspired by Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland,” channels the filmmaker’s trademark sense of chaos and longing into a layered reflection on social idealism and decay.

Elsewhere, “Bugonia” reimagines the 2003 South Korean dark comedy “Save the Green Planet” through the lens of Yorgos Lanthimos’ distinctive vision, with screenwriter Will Tracy twisting its absurdist horror into a darker, more satirical register.

The “little film that could” this season is “Train Dreams,” an adaptation of Denis Johnson’s novella by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, which may emerge as a quiet threat as the season progresses. A lyrical portrait of isolation and loss, it has ardent defenders and admirers who could help carry it far. Meanwhile, there’s a strong gut feeling that Craig Brewer’s “Song Sung Blue,” based on a real-life story tied to the music industry, could bring a soulful, populist touch to a category defined this year by ambition and artistry — aided by standout performances from Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson.

NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios, and final credits are subject to change.

Eligible Titles (Adapted Screenplay)