Oscar Predictions: Best Actress — Jessie Buckley and Renate Reinsve Anchor a Crowded Global Race

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Actress Commentary (Updated Sept. 12, 2025): We’re just getting started. The best actress race seems to be top-heavy in terms of contenders, but campaign selections will ultimately determine the best chances of recognition for a few of these ladies..

Leading the pack is Jessie Buckley’s powerhouse turn in Chloé Zhao’s adaptation of “Hamnet,” which stunned audiences at Telluride and Toronto, and seems to be the early favorite coming after her first nom for “The Lost Daughter” (2022). The Focus Features drama delivers heart-wrenching performances from Buckley, as well as co-star Paul Mescal. Zhao’s adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel is emerging as a major Oscar contender across multiple categories, and Buckley could be the key that keeps the campaign intact.

Close behind is Renate Reinsve in Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value,” which premiered as a major awards contender at Cannes before making stops at the fall festivals. The Norwegian drama serves as Trier’s follow-up to “The Worst Person in the World,” which won Reinsve best actress at Cannes and earned two Oscar nominations. Norway has already selected “Sentimental Value” as its official submission for international feature, and Neon is giving this a huge awards push, which offers Reinsve the needed momentum.

Cynthia Erivo remains an intriguing wildcard for Jon M. Chu’s musical sequel, “Wicked: For Good,” with her Elphaba still unseen but carrying considerable anticipation given her previous Oscar nomination and the musical’s built-in fan base.

And then two performances could face category placement questions that would impact their places in the race. Two-time Oscar winner Emma Stone’s revered work in Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” solidified Focus Features’ dominance at Telluride. At the same time, Kate Hudson’s role in Craig Brewer’s “Song Sung Blue” will close AFI, potentially offering late-season momentum depending on whether campaigns target lead or supporting categories. Hudson is rumored to be a possible spoiler (especially after seeing the trailer), which could bring the former Oscar nominee her second nod after “Almost Famous” (2001).

We also have Sydney Sweeney on our radar, who could make a run for her biopic “Christy,” despite the mixed reviews. The same goes for Academy Award winner Julia Roberts, who’s the best part of her Luca Guadagnino drama “After the Hunt.” And never count out other A-listers like Jennifer Lawrence from Lynne Ramsay’s “Die, My Love” or Laura Dern, who may get a boost from Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly,” and get a lift for her upcoming work in Bradley Cooper’s “Is This Thing On?” which is said to be a leading role.

Keep watching this space for more updates as it all unfolds.

NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed category classifications are subject to change.

Eligible Performers (Best Actress)