Oscar Predictions: Best Director — Women Winners, Overdue Legends and Ryan Coogler’s Push for History Define the Race

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Director Commentary (Updated Sept. 18, 2025): For the first time in Academy Awards history, two women who have already won best director could find themselves going head-to-head for a second statuette.

Chloé Zhao, who made history with her win for “Nomadland” (2020) is back in the race with “Hamnet,” a poetic adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel about grief, art and legacy. Meanwhile, Kathryn Bigelow, the first woman to ever win the directing Oscar for “The Hurt Locker” (2009) has returned with the explosive political thriller “A House of Dynamite,” a nerve-jangling 18-minute countdown story centered on a nuclear threat.

If both women land nominations, the 98th Academy Awards could mark a rare and groundbreaking standoff: two previous winners in a category that for nearly a century was dominated exclusively by men.

Zhao’s “Hamnet,” fresh off capturing the Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award, has vaulted to frontrunner status. That honor has historically served as a reliable predictor for best picture and director recognition, with recent winners like “Green Book” going on to Oscar glory. Zhao is also bolstered by industry heavyweights like Oscar winners Sam Mendes and Steven Spielberg, who are among the producing team.

Bigelow, meanwhile, has reasserted herself as one of the leading filmmakers in tension after nearly a decade away from the screen. “A House of Dynamite” premiered to rapturous reviews for its white-knuckle pace and ensemble cast led by Idris Elba and Rebecca Ferguson.

Hovering over both women is the looming shadow of Paul Thomas Anderson, the revered auteur whose new film, “One Battle After Another,” has ignited some of the most passionate reviews of his career. The action-crime-comedy, featuring Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Chase Infiniti, Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor, currently sits at 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and boasts a near-perfect 96 on Metacritic. Some of Anderson’s Hollywood supporters are already banging the drum loud for the filmmaker including Spielberg, who has been very vocal in his praise, and coincendentally is a producer for Zhao, who’s also in the race.

Despite 11 Oscar nominations across his filmography, Anderson has yet to secure a win. Will the “overdue” narrative work for the auteur similar to the successful campaign for Martin Scorsese nearly 20 years ago with “The Departed” (2006)?

The season is not only about returning winners and overdue legends. Ryan Coogler, riding the wave of critical acclaim and box office success for “Sinners,” is still considered a formidable contender. The Marvel alum made history when “Black Panther” (2018) became the first superhero film nominated for best picture. Later, he was nominated as a producer for “Judas and the Black Messiah” (2021). Now, industry watchers are eyeing whether Coogler could break another ceiling and become the first Black director to win the Academy Award.

However, the best director race is rarely without surprises. Craig Brewer’s upcoming love story “Song Sung Blue,” set to bow at AFI Film Festival, could attract attention for mainstream voters and audiences. At the same time, Josh Safdie’s upcoming “Marty Supreme” from A24, which stars Timothee Chalamet could sneak into the conversation.

Also on the A24 plate is Benny Safdie, Josh’s brother, also making his solo directorial debut with “The Smashing Machine” with Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt, who already has a high-profile accolade from Venice, where he won the Silver Lion for directing.

Let’s see how the race takes shape.

NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed category classifications are subject to change.