Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actor — Kieran Culkin Continues His Winning Streak for ‘A Real Pain.’ Will It Continue?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Best Supporting Actor commentary (Updated Feb. 13, 2025): Kieran Culkin remains the frontrunner for his performance in “A Real Pain,” especially after picking up Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins, along with a slew of other trophies this season. But don’t count out Edward Norton, a four-time Oscar nominee, who’s still a viable threat for “A Complete Unknown.” If Norton is going to play spoiler, it has to happen at BAFTA — since the SAG Awards take place after final Oscar voting closes. Culkin, meanwhile, is heavily favored at SAG, where his strong TV roots give him an edge with the guild’s voter base.

Interestingly, Guy Pearce’s searing work in “The Brutalist” could also make a surprise with a victory at BAFTA, but that seems unlikely given the state of his film.

Then there’s Yura Borisov, the wild card in the race. His nomination for “Anora” comes just as the film surges in momentum, leaving many wondering: Could he pull off a BAFTA upset and flip the script? It’s a long shot, but nothing’s off the table in an unpredictable season.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

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