Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actress — Emily Blunt, Ariana Grande and Amy Madigan Stir an Unsettled Race

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Supporting Actress Commentary (Updated Sept. 12, 2025): Any actress who feels like winning the supporting actress category, feel free. I have no idea who the frontrunner is.

Leading early predictions are Emily Blunt for “The Smashing Machine,” with the A24 drama positioning her as a viable contender coming after her “Oppenheimer” (2023) nom. Also in the mix is last year’s nominee, Ariana Grande, whose performance as Glinda in “Wicked: For Good” continues to gain popularity, with more positive early praise circulating as Universal’s musical juggernaut builds momentum toward its November release.

The category features several veteran performers seeking recognition. Believe it or not, Glenn Close could return to awards contention with Netflix’s “Wake Up Dead Man,” the latest installment in the “Knives Out” franchise. Gwyneth Paltrow emerges as a potential contender with A24’s “Marty Supreme,” marking her return to serious dramatic work after years focused on her lifestyle ventures.

Warner Bros. will surely have to juggle multiple candidates with Hailee Steinfeld and Wunmi Mosaku from “Sinners” and the trio of Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti from “One Battle After Another.” The studio is planning aggressive campaigns across all categories for the Paul Thomas Anderson epic. And don’t forget previous Oscar nominee Amy Madigan, who has her ardent admirers from the summer hit “Weapons.”

Jennifer Lopez earned her strongest reviews in years at Sundance for “Kiss of the Spider Woman,” Bill Condon’s musical adaptation that Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions will release this fall.

And of course, two wild cards remain: Emma Stone’s work in Focus Features’ “Bugonia” and Kate Hudson’s performance in “Song Sung Blue,” both facing category placement decisions that could dramatically reshape the race depending on whether campaigns target lead or supporting consideration.

Any other guesses are fair game.

NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed category classifications are subject to change.

Eligible Performers (Supporting Actress)