Oscars 2026: ‘Sinners’ Becomes Early Contender Ahead of Cannes Film Festival

By Kevin HarsonMay 1, 2025

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Commentary (Updated: May 1, 2025): It might only be May 1, but if buzz is already building inside of a year that will be defined by high-wattage star power, bold auteur vision, and some major shake-ups.

Coming in hot is “Sinners,” the latest from writer-director Ryan Coogler, who continues to redefine mainstream cinema with genre-defying storytelling and undeniable cultural resonance. Backed by Warner Bros., the film has already proven a box office hit and is set for an IMAX re-release — the kind of campaign boost that can cement a film as a top-to-bottom contender.

There’s already been movement on the calendar front. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Bride,” once expected to be a major player this year, has officially shifted to 2026. That delay clears the path for Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” from Netflix to dominate the conversation in its space — and gives the streamer a prime opportunity to steer the film to best picture status. With del Toro’s track record, and early word on the gothic adaptation already stirring anticipation, expect it to be a core title in every prediction list going forward.

Meanwhile, Focus Features is building one of the year’s most formidable slates. Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” reunites the Oscar-winning director with his “Poor Things” collaborators Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in another surreal, genre-tilted world. And Chloé Zhao, five years after her “Nomadland” win, returns with “Hamnet,” a sweeping adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel starring Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal. These films signal Focus’ serious intent to land not just one, but potentially multiple best picture nods.

But perhaps the biggest headline of all: Daniel Day-Lewis is back with his son Ronan’s film “Anemone.”

The Cannes Film Festival, always a major launching pad for Oscar hopefuls, will feature Mescal in Oliver Hermanus’ “The History of Sound,” a gay romance co-starring Josh O’Connor, who also headlines Kelly Reichardt’s “The Mastermind.” Those two titles are among a dense competition lineup that includes films from Wes Anderson, Ari Aster, Julia Ducournau, Richard Linklater and others.

Cannes will also host several high-profile out-of-competition titles. Tom Cruise returns to the Croisette with “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning,” while Spike Lee’s “Highest 2 Lowest” — starring Denzel Washington — is expected to be turn some heads. Jodie Foster also arrives with “Vie Privée,” a crime comedy from Rebecca Zlotowski that could sneak into the conversation if reception is strong.

At this stage, it’s still early days. We won’t debut charts until after Cannes hands out its Palme d’or.

All release dates, studios, and official credits are not final and subject to change.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

Best Picture

Oscar Isaac as Victor Frankenstein in “Frankenstein” directed by Guillermo del Toro. Photo Credit: Ken Woroner / Netflix — Image Credit: Ken Woroner / Netflix

“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Yorgos Lanthimos, Ari Aster, Lars Knudsen, Emma Stone, Miky Lee, Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Jerry Kyoungboum Ko
“Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
Scott Stuber, Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, Scott Cooper, Eric Robinson
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Jerry Bruckheimer, Joseph Kosinski, Lewis Hamilton, Brad Pitt, Jeremy Kleiner, Dede Gardner, Chad Oman
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Guillermo del Toro, Gary Ungar, Scott Stuber, J. Miles Dale
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Pippa Harris, Liza Marshall, Sam Mendes, Steven Spielberg
“Late Fame” (No U.S. Distribution)
Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, Ryan Coogler
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Maria Ekerhovd, Andrew Berenstsen Ottmar
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Dwayne Johnson, Benny Safdie, Eli Bush, David Koplan
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Marc Platt