SAG Awards Blow the Oscar Race Wide Open as Timothée Chalamet, ‘Conclave’ Surge in Wildest Awards Season in Years

If you thought predicting this year’s Academy Awards would be easy, the Screen Actors Guild Awards just proved otherwise. Voted on by more than 150,000 SAG-AFTRA members, the SAG Awards reaffirmed what has been true all season: Several major Oscar categories remain wide open with just one week to go before the ceremony.

Coming off a dominant showing at the BAFTA Awards, Edward Berger’s Vatican thriller “Conclave” took home the top prize for best cast ensemble. With victories at both the SAG and BAFTA Awards — two critical precursors — the Focus Features drama enters Oscar night in a strong position. This mirrors the trajectory of “Shakespeare in Love” (1998), which leveraged SAG and BAFTA only wins to upset presumed frontrunner “Saving Private Ryan” for best picture.

The biggest competition for “Conclave” still remains Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or winning dramedy “Anora,” which surprisingly left the SAG Awards empty-handed. Star Mikey Madison, who had built considerable momentum in the best actress race, lost to Demi Moore for her transformative role in “The Substance.” Despite this, “Anora” remains a presumptive favorite among Academy voters, according to anonymous Oscar ballots shared with Variety.

Meanwhile, the chances of Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez,” James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown” and Jon M. Chu’s blockbuster musical “Wicked” winning best picture have likely evaporated. Without a key precursor win, history suggests their paths to victory are nearly impossible. No film has won best picture at the Oscars without securing at least one major precursor from the Producers Guild of America, Directors Guild of America, Writers Guild of America, or SAG since these awards began coexisting.

One of the night’s most significant moments was Timothée Chalamet’s win for “A Complete Unknown,” making him the youngest actor to ever win the SAG Award for lead actor, surpassing Nicolas Cage’s record from “Leaving Las Vegas” (1995). Chalamet’s victory disrupted the winning streak of current Oscar frontrunner Adrien Brody, who plays a Holocaust survivor in Brady Corbet’s historical epic “The Brutalist.”

However, history is not on Chalamet’s side. Since SAG began its awards in 1994, no actor has won the Oscar with just a SAG victory. In fact, two actors — Denzel Washington for “Training Day” (2002) and Brody for “The Pianist” (2003) — have won the Oscar without taking any major televised precursor. That would suggest Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) or Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) may be more viable contenders.

The best actress race remains one of the most unpredictable. Veteran star Demi Moore, in a career-defining turn as an actress-turned-fitness guru in “The Substance,” won her first SAG Award, besting Madison, who had just claimed the BAFTA one week prior. With three of the four major precursor wins, Moore appears to have the edge.

However, the wildcard in the race is Fernanda Torres, who won the Golden Globe for her remarkable turn in the Brazilian drama “I’m Still Here.” Unlike Moore and Madison, Torres has yet to compete against her Oscar rivals head-to-head. And there is considerable support for Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), whose film unfortunately is now tied with “The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022) as the movie with the most SAG losses with five. Best actress will be one of the most nail-biting categories of the night.

The supporting races seem much clearer. Kieran Culkin, nominated for Jesse Eisenberg’s dramedy “A Real Pain,” continues his sweep and is all but assured his first Oscar — just 13 months after winning his first Emmy for HBO’s “Succession.”

On the best supporting actress side, Zoë Saldaña has dominated the season for her role as a lawyer entangled with a drug cartel in “Emilia Pérez.” However, the controversy surrounding her co-star Gascón — after resurfaced tweets sparked backlash— has complicated matters. The Academy Awards are the only major voting body to have cast final ballots entirely after the controversy broke, raising questions about whether it will (or did) impact the final results.

With “Anora” securing key wins at the PGA, DGA, and WGA Awards, it remains the statistical favorite for best picture. Only one film has ever lost the Oscar after winning all three: “Brokeback Mountain” (2005), which fell to another SAG ensemble winner “Crash.”

In the world of television, FX’s historical epic “Shōgun” and Netflix’s thriller limited series “Baby Reindeer” completed their Emmy runs with key victories. In terms of looking ahead, Colin Farrell has quickly established himself as the one to beat in lead actor (limited) for his work in the superhero crime series “The Penguin.” In the comedy realm, the third season of “Hacks” completed its perfect run for star Jean Smart, but it was Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building” that claimed two huge prizes for Martin Short and comedy ensemble. Could the show be working its way toward its first comedy series win in September? One awards ceremony at a time.

With just days left until the ceremony, this remains one of the most unpredictable Oscar races in years. As Variety continues to share final predictions and anonymous Academy voter ballots, one thing is certain — anything can still happen on Hollywood’s biggest night. The 96th Academy Awards take place Sunday, March 2.