Shutdown: Why I Worry That the Democrats Are Screwing It Up Again

“The question about the misappropriation of funds, the cutting of programs, the federal firings—all of those things are already illegal. So we can insist that they make them illegal again in these appropriations bills, but it doesn’t change the dynamic,” says Stansbury. She added, “We are fighting back. But you’ve got to fight back in the right venue.”

All that said, there are many problems with the Democrats embracing a health care–focused shutdown. I worry this Obamacare demand is almost too small to sustain an extended shutdown. (My colleague Michael Tomasky made a similar argument last month.) The overwhelming majority of Americans get health care through their jobs, Medicare, or Medicaid. They just aren’t that invested in the comparatively small population on the Obamacare exchanges. If the Trump administration starts laying off large numbers of federal workers, closing national parks, and taking other steps to make this shutdown painful, while blaming Democrats for that pain, I am not sure defending Obamacare subsidies will be a strong enough message for the broader public to continue a shutdown.

Second, my sense is that those on Team Normal, particularly moderate Democratic senators, still basically believe in that strategy and won’t commit to a shutdown for too long. There is a reasonable argument that the Democratic Party has executed the Normal strategy most of this year and it’s working, at least electorally: Trump’s poll numbers are terrible; Democrats are doing very well in special elections and are clear favorites to win the midterms. An extended shutdown risks those advantages.