The Democrats Are in a Strong Position to Win the House

Republicans in Texas, under the orders of President Trump, are doing a very unusual redistricting in the middle of a decade, trying to win up to five more House seats in next year’s midterm elections. They are rightly nervous, argues Nathaniel Rakich, a former senior editor at FiveThirtyEight, in the most recent episode of TNR’s Right Now With Perry Bacon. The party that wins the White House nearly always loses ground in the House elections two years later. It’s essentially a law of politics. And Rakich says polling, special election results, and other data portend a bad midterm for Republicans. He likened it to the 2018 midterms, when Democrats made huge gains. Even if Republicans further gerrymander congressional districts in Texas, and California and other blue states don’t respond in kind (though they have promised to do so), Democrats would still be favored to win the House, according to Rakich.

Rakich doesn’t think the Democrats have much chance in the Senate, though. As for the 2028 presidential race, Rakich argued Vice President JD Vance’s chances in a GOP primary are entirely dependent on whether he gets Trump’s endorsement. He said the Democratic field is wide open, but argued that California Governor Gavin Newsom is positioning himself well. You can watch our conversation here.

TNR's Perry Bacon Chats with former 538 Senior Editor Nathaniel Rakich by The New Republic

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