Toyota warns of profit drop as tariff chaos threatens carmakers

[TOKYO] Toyota Motor is bracing itself for a bumpy year, with the Japanese carmaker warning of a slump in profit as global manufacturers scramble to shield themselves from US President Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil.

The company forecasts an operating income of 3.8 trillion yen (S$34.2 billion) for the year ending Mar 31, 2026, it said on Thursday (May 8), falling far short analyst expectations of 4.7 trillion yen. The figure compares with 4.8 trillion yen a year earlier and a record 5.35 trillion yen during the 2024 fiscal year – an all-time high for any Japanese company.

The cautious outlook follows a lukewarm finish to the latest financial year, with profit up 0.3 per cent to 1.1 trillion yen in the fourth quarter on a steady recovery in sales in the US, Japan and China.

Toyota said it’s tentatively factored in a 180 billion yen hit to profit over April and May from US tariffs. It joins the growing number of carmakers, dealers and auto parts suppliers that have been whipsawed by Trump’s ever-changing trade strategy.

Last week, Trump offered some relief to the industry by signing a directive that would exempt imported automobiles from separate tariffs on aluminium and steel. That came alongside a separate proclamation that allows carmakers that produce and sell completed automobiles in the US to claim an offset worth up to 3.75 per cent of the value of American-made vehicles – a temporary reprieve from the 25 per cent tariff on imported parts that took effect May 3.

While the policy shifts have complicated investment plans for many companies, Toyota has maintained that it will stay the course when it comes to its operations in the US.

Meanwhile, the impact of tariffs has seen Nissan Motor halt US orders for SUVs built in Mexico, while Honda Motor is shifting production of the hybrid version of its Civic from Japan to the US. Mazda Motor will stop exporting one model type to Canada that’s made in the US as a temporary countermeasure.

The US is the largest market for five of Japan’s biggest carmakers. It accounted for around 23 per cent of Toyota’s global sales last year, 28 per cent for Nissan and 71 per cent for Subaru, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Of the roughly 5.9 million vehicles that Japan’s manufacturers sold in the US last year, about half were imported.

Major Japanese carmakers, including Toyota, saw a surge in US sales in March as customers rushed to lock in purchases before the tariffs kicked in and potentially add thousands of US dollars to car prices.

As well as the fallout of US tariffs on Toyota, investors are assessing the impact of chairman Akio Toyoda’s attempted buyout of loom and car parts business Toyota Industries. His proposal values the latter at six trillion yen and would it rank among the biggest buyouts on record globally. BLOOMBERG