Trump’s tariff pause is about to expire. Here’s how Wall Street is handling the looming deadline

Wall Street is pointing to a lower open Monday as the Trump administration steps up pressure on trading partners to quickly make deals before a Wednesday deadline.

The U.S. will warn trading partners that higher tariffs could kick in Aug. 1.

Futures for the S&P 500 fell 0.3% before the opening bell, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped less than 0.1%. Nasdaq futures slid 0.5%.

Trump and his top trade advisers said over the weekend that the president could extend the tariff deadline if countries were making concessions and negotiating in good faith.

“We expect markets to be volatile into the 9-July deadline when the 90-day pause on President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs expires for non-China trading partners,” the Nomura Group wrote in a commentary.

The near-term outlook will likely hinge on several key factors like the extent to which trading partners are included in Trump letters, the rate of tariffs, and the effective date of such tariffs, according to Nomura.

“With the July 9 tariff deadline fast approaching, all eyes are trained on Washington, scanning for signs of escalation or retreat. The path forward isn’t clear, but the terrain is littered with risk,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

In equities trading, Tesla tumbled 6.5% as the feud between CEO Elon Musk and Trump reignited over the weekend. Musk, once a top donor and ally of Trump, announced that he was forming a third political party in protest over the Republicans’ spending bill that passed late last week.

Trump criticized Musk in a social media post, suggesting that Musk’s disappointment in the bill was because the legislation ended an “electric vehicle mandate,” which Trump says Musk knew was coming.

Investors fear that Musk’s companies, which receive significant subsidies from the federal government, could suffer further if his feud with Trump continues to escalate.

Molina Healthcare tumbled 6% after the insurer lowered its profit guidance due to rapidly accelerating costs. UnitedHealth Group also recently reported a spike in costs that forced it to cut its forecast, sending its stock tumbling in April.

Oil prices fluctuated after OPEC+ agreed on Saturday to raise production in August by 548,000 barrels per day.

U.S. benchmark crude was essentially unchanged early Monday at $67 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gained 40 cents to $68.70 per barrel.

At midday in Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 inched up 0.1%, while Germany’s DAX added 0.8%. In Paris, the CAC 40 was up 0.2%.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed 0.6% to 39,587. 68 while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged down 0.1% to 23,887.83.

South Korea’s KOSPI index rose 0.2% to 3,059.47 while the Shanghai Composite Index edged 0.1% higher to 3,473.13. Australia’s S&P ASX 200 fell 0.2% to 8,589.30.

In currency trading Monday, the U.S. dollar rose to 145.42 Japanese yen from 144.44 yen. The euro edged lower to $1.1727 from $1.1779.
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—Teresa Cerojano and Matt Ott, Associated Press