Trump’s Tariffs Could Damage a Key Alliance—and Spike Your Drug Costs
In addition, the tariffs seem selective. China, the other major buyer of Russian oil, has faced no equivalent penalties. Why pick on India when China buys even more Russian oil and poses a bigger strategic threat? This double standard makes the U.S. look inconsistent and weakens its moral ground in international communities.
Trump has placed Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a challenging position: Giving in to American pressures could cause domestic backlash because consumers would be hit by higher oil prices, and rebuffing them would result in high tariffs. “India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, dairy farmers, and fishermen,” Modi said during a speech at an agricultural conference in New Delhi. India doesn’t want to appear weak, which is reflected in his defiance. It will continue to assert that its foreign policy is guided by its national security.
Tariffs aren’t the only front on which Trump has put the U.S.-India relationship at risk. India and Pakistan had a brief four-day conflict in May. When it ended, Trump took credit for brokering the ceasefire. India denied this, insisting it resulted solely from bilateral dialogue. Shortly after doing that, Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, for lunch at the White House. Such missteps, combined with tariffs, increase the risk of pushing India toward China and Russia. It’s like America is handing India reasons to rethink its alliances, at a moment when unity against common threats is crucial.
The Trump administration must recognize that coercion is counterproductive. India’s strategic autonomy cannot be dictated by tariffs. A diplomatic reset is essential, one that prioritizes dialogue over punishment. The United States could offer targeted exemptions for India’s key exports, like pharmaceuticals, in exchange for gradual reductions in Russian oil imports. This would allow Modi to save face domestically while aligning with U.S. goals. Washington should recommit to the Quad, hosting its planned summit in India this year to signal enduring partnership. Strengthening defense and technology cooperation, already robust through initiatives, could rebuild trust.
Trump needs to go beyond just exemptions. For example, joint ventures in clean energy could help India diversify away from Russian oil. Sharing technology for solar or wind power would benefit both nations, reducing dependence on fossil fuels and creating jobs. Similarly, expanding educational exchanges and people-to-people ties could foster goodwill that’s harder to break with policy swings.
Finally, Trump must temper his rhetoric. Publicly taunting India as a “dead economy” or claiming credit for its diplomatic achievements alienates a proud nation. A quieter, more respectful approach, acknowledging India’s global aspirations, would go further in securing cooperation. The United States could also leverage its influence to support India’s bid for a permanent U.N. Security Council seat. That would reinforce New Delhi’s stake in the U.S.-led order and show we’re invested in India’s rise, not just using it as a counterweight.
Some in Washington see the tariffs as a negotiating tactic, not a permanent rupture, aimed at forcing India to diversify its energy sources. Yet this view underestimates the long-term damage. Alienating India risks not only economic ties, but also its role as a strategic partner in containing China’s ambitions, from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean. If India drifts closer to BRICS nations, it could strengthen a bloc that challenges Western dominance in trade, finance, and technology.
The United States cannot afford to lose India. For India, the costs are high; its global ambitions rely on American support, and a drift toward Beijing or Moscow would undermine its superpower aspirations. Trump’s tariffs may aim to weaken Russia, but they risk a far greater loss: a fractured partnership that could reshape the global order in China’s favor. India and the United States should put effort to reset ties despite tensions with creative diplomacy. Trump must act swiftly to repair this rift, prioritizing diplomacy.
A strong U.S.-India bond isn’t just about geopolitics; it’s about shared prosperity. Indian innovation in IT and pharmaceuticals complements American strengths. But if tariffs force India to pivot, the supply chains could shift to less reliable partners, hurting U.S. consumers. It’s high time for smarter engagement that builds bridges, not walls.
