U.S. population growth is slowing because of declining immigration. What does it mean for the workforce?

The U.S.’s population growth is slowing as immigration has declined amid President Donald Trump’s deportation push and stricter border policies.

According to new Census Bureau data, the drop-off is the biggest since the COVID-19 pandemic. From July 2024 to July 2025, the population of the United States grew by 1.8 million people (about 0.5%). This was mostly driven by immigration: During that period, the U.S. added 1.3 million immigrants. This is a steep decline from the previous year, in which 2.7 million immigrants arrived.

The Census Bureau predicts that by July of this year, the number of immigrants could drop even more, to just 321,000. Meanwhile, the number of deportations, including self-deportations, totaled nearly 3 million as of January 20, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

Previously, immigration in the U.S. had been growing for over 50 years until new policies enacted by the Biden administration—such as tightened border security measures and restricting asylum for those crossing between ports of entry—took effect in 2024.

“The big takeaway is, wow, the Trump administration, and even the end of the Biden administration, made a big difference,” Steven Camarota, the director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies, told CBS News. “It sure looks like we’re seeing a fundamental change that reflects policy.”

Aside from a decline in immigration, population growth has already been slowing for decades due to declining birth rates in the U.S.

Impacts across the labor force will be undeniable, experts say. Juan Carlos Rivera, an immigration attorney based in Miami, has seen the effects of the U.S.’s new policies firsthand, given the uptick in deportations. Rivera says most of the individuals in the deportation cases he’s seen were working and contributing to the country’s economy.

Needless to say, deporting employees will come with hefty consequences, according to Rivera. “When fewer workers are available, businesses face higher labor costs, reduced productivity, and slower expansion,” he says. “That pressure shows up in higher prices for consumers and weaker overall economic growth.”

Rivera also believes that the current immigration enforcement tactics will impact the nation’s ability to stay competitive with the rest of the world. “Other countries are actively competing for workers and talent as their populations age. If the United States does not maintain a legal and reliable immigration system that supports workers across skill levels, it risks losing ground in innovation, supply chain stability, and long-term economic leadership,” Rivera explains.

According to a new report from Sedgwick, an HR administration company, immigration enforcement is already creating some of those broader economic issues. Per the 2026 report: “Immigration-related labor disruptions affect three-quarters of organizations to varying degrees,” which it calls “a chronic operational drag rather than an acute crisis.”

Dave Arick, managing director of global risk management at Sedgwick, tells Fast Company that certain industries—like healthcare, technology, and hospitality, which “rely more heavily upon scientific and technical qualifications for key roles”—are already navigating “a highly competitive environment for attracting and retaining people with specific expertise and experience, especially when coupled with high market growth.”

Therefore, Arick says that new immigration changes, such as those that “restrict immigrant higher education and employment,” will further “shrink the available talent pool”—which will, in turn, “drive up costs to acquire the highest-qualified available candidates.”