Bitcoin lags behind gold as Trump’s trade war spurs safe haven demand

After outperforming most asset classes in 2024, Bitcoin now finds itself under pressure as Donald Trump’s White House return and heightened geopolitical instability spark a rush for safe haven investments.

Bitcoin has gained just over 3 per cent year to date, trailing gold’s 9 per cent jump, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The precious metal reached a record high of US$2,882 an ounce after Trump on Feb 4 said the US could take over Gaza – a comment his aides sought to tone down. Bitcoin is currently about 10 per cent below its peak.

While Bitcoin has been described as a store-of-value similar to gold because of the cryptocurrency’s in-built scarcity – its supply is capped at 21 million – the token has not lived up to the billing. Gold’s enduring appeal during times of economic turmoil has been amplified by recent developments such as the US-China trade war and the threat of tariffs. Contrastingly, Bitcoin has often moved in near-lockstep with technology stocks.

While Bitcoin could be considered a hedge against fiat currency, its appeal is muted in a market where the US dollar remains in high demand, Aoifinn Devitt, senior investment advisor at Moneta Group, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “In time it will have its own characteristics that act separate and apart from markets, but at this point it is behaving as the riskiest of risk-on assets,” Devitt said.

Still, Bitcoin advocates hope the token’s intrinsic qualities will see it behave more akin to a store-of-value in time. The advent of exchange-traded funds that invest directly in the largest digital asset will “gradually decrease volatility and likely see investors chasing volatility move to more riskier cryptocurrency assets,” Paul Howard, senior director at market maker Wincent said. BLOOMBERG

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