Emmy Predictions: Drama Series — ‘Severance’ Holds Firm at No. 1; Can ‘Paradise’ Sneak In?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Outstanding Drama Series Commentary (Updated May 29, 2025): As the Phase 1 voting nears, the Emmy landscape reflects an industry in transition — streamers are recalibrating, genre boundaries are blurring, and voters face tough choices between zeitgeist-defining titles and craft-driven prestige.

Apple TV+’s cerebral thriller “Severance” holds the top spot, positioning itself as the frontrunner in a field dominated by streaming platforms.

HBO Max’s buzzy newcomer “The Pitt,” could be the spoiler lurking in the wings if it garners enough support.

Hulu’s “Paradise” sits at No. 9 — a sleeper contender that’s gaining momentum, but with the goods to potentially de-throne other shows such as Apple’s “Slow Horses” and Netflix’s “Squid Game.” The crafts for those two shows will give them an upper hand as the race unfolds.

The Emmys eligibility period ends on May 31. Nomination voting runs from June 12 to June 23, with official nominations set to be announced July 15.

(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)

And the Predicted Contenders Are:

More Information (Drama Series)

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.