Opec+ set to raise oil output further from October: sources

[LONDON/MOSCOW] Opec+ is set to agree to further raise oil output on Sunday (Sep 7) while probably slowing the pace of increases from October compared with recent months because of weakening global demand, Opec+ sources said.

Opec+ has reversed its strategy of output cuts from April and has already raised quotas by about 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), equating to about 2.4 per cent of world demand, to boost market share amid pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower oil prices.

But those increases have failed to significantly dent oil prices, which are trading near US$66 a barrel supported by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran, encouraging further oil production increases by rivals such as the United States.

A Sunday deal to boost output from October would mean Opec+ would begin to unwind a second tranche of cuts of about 1.65 million bpd, more than a year ahead of schedule, after fully unwinding the first tranche since April.

Talks are focusing on unwinding the 1.65 million bpd cut in gradual monthly increments and the group has reached an agreement in principle to raise output by at least 135,000 bpd from October, two sources familiar with talks said on Saturday.

The increase could be bigger at between 200,000 and 350,000 bpd, a third source said.

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At their last meeting in August, Opec+, which pumps about half of the world’s oil, raised production by 547,000 bpd for September.

Opec+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, will start an online meeting on Sunday at 12.30 pm GMT.

Brent crude futures closed at US$65.50 a barrel on Friday, down 2.2 per cent, due to a weak US jobs report and expectations of an Opec+ output hike. This is still up from a 2025 low of near US$58 seen in April.

Opec+’s hikes have fallen short of the pledged amounts because most members are pumping near capacity.

As a result, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are able to add more barrels into the market, analysts have said and data have shown.

Opec still has in place two layers of cuts – the 1.65 million bpd cut by eight members, and another two million bpd cut by the whole group in place until the end of 2026. REUTERS