Emmy Predictions: ‘The Studio’ Rises, ‘Severance’ Holds Steady, and a Love Song from ‘Love on the Spectrum’ Breaks Ground

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Emmys Commentary (Updated: May 8, 2025): Happy Emmy submissions day!

In the comedy series race, Apple TV+’s “The Studio” has emerged as the buzzy new frontrunner after a hugely successful freshman season (and has now been renewed). It has the goods to dethrone HBO/Max’s reigning champ, “Hacks.” Co-created by and starring Seth Rogen, the behind-the-scenes satire of Hollywood blends sharp writing with industry in-jokes, resonating with voters and critics alike. But “The Bear” from FX — a critical juggernaut — is still in the hunt, especially with a fourth season coming during the voting period.

Meanwhile, in limited series, the competition may be slimmer in number but rich with ambition. Netflix’s British family drama “Adolescence” leads the charge, while Colin Farrell’s chilling turn in HBO/Max’s “The Penguin” brings the Batman universe squarely into prestige territory. Another Netflix player, the long-running anthology “Black Mirror,” returned with a tech-paranoid season that struck a particularly timely chord, reminding Emmy voters why it still matters.

On the drama front, Apple TV+’s existential thriller “Severance” remains the frontrunner, buoyed by its high‐concept premise, meticulous design and a devoted critical following. Still, HBO Max’s medical drama “The Pitt” is gathering momentum and could pull off an upset reminiscent of Showtime’s “Homeland” in its inaugural season. With a powerhouse cast led by Emmy nominee Noah Wyle and showrunner-driven storytelling that balances high‐stakes hospital tension with deeply personal character arcs, “The Pitt” has has a groundswell of viewer enthusiasm that may sway voters looking for fresh, emotionally resonant fare.

In the outstanding variety talk series category, changes to Emmy rules could shake up the status quo. With only about a dozen entries, only three nominees may be announced this year. That tight squeeze could bump out stalwarts like Stephen Colbert, Jimmy Kimmel or Seth Meyers. Enter “Hot Ones,” the YouTube interview series hosted by Sean Evans. Long considered a viral oddity, the show may finally be on the verge of a mainstream breakthrough — hot sauce and all.

In the variety special (live) category, Netflix’s upcoming “Beyonce Bowl,” timed with her blockbuster “Cowboy Carter” tour, is expected to benefit from renewed public interest and Queen Bey’s unmatched star power.

Documentary categories are also shaping up with heavy hitters. In series, Apple TV+’s “Number One on the Call Sheet” and FX’s “Social Studies” are among the top contenders. For special, Hulu’s “Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band,” Disney+’s “Beatles ‘64” and HBO/Max’s “Pee-Wee as Himself” are battling for the top spot.

The animated program race sees the final season of Netflix’s “Big Mouth” taking on perennial favorite “The Simpsons,” while the hosted nonfiction program field could include National Geographic’s “Tucci in Italy” and CNN’s “Eva Longoria: Searching for Spain.”

But one of the most moving entries this year comes from a quiet moment of music and heart.

Variety has learned exclusively that “Boyfriend Forever,” an original song featured in Season 3 of Netflix’s Emmy-winning docuseries “Love on the Spectrum,” has been submitted for outstanding original music and lyrics. Co-written and performed by cast member Abbey Romeo as a love song to her partner David Isaacman, the track was penned alongside Casey Kelly and Garth Herberg. If nominated, the song would not only mark a major first for the show but also shine a light on authentic representation and storytelling in the neurodivergent community at a time when cultural narratives around autism remain fraught with misunderstanding and stigma.

Check out this week’s Emmy predictions in key series and acting categories below. Emmy submissions are due Thursday, May 8. The nomination voting window runs from June 12 to June 23, with official nominations set to be announced in July.

Nomination leaders (studios):

Nomination leaders (series):

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

Drama Series

“Andor” (Disney+)
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
“Severance” (Apple TV+) ***
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
“Squid Game” (Netflix)
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Comedy Series

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX)
“The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
“The Studio” (Apple TV+) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Limited or Anthology Series

“Adolescence” (Netflix) ***
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
“Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Television Movie

“Bridget Jones: Mad About a Boy” (Peacock)
“The Gorge” (Apple TV+)
“Mountainhead” (HBO/Max)
“Out of My Mind” (Disney+)
“Rebel Ridge” (Netflix) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actor (Drama)

Sterling K. Brown
“Paradise” (Hulu)
Jon Hamm
“Your Friends and Neighbors” (Apple TV+)
Lee Jung-jae
“Squid Game” (Netflix)
Gary Oldman
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Adam Scott
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Noah Wyle ***
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actor (Comedy)

Adam Brody
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Seth Rogen ***
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Jason Segel
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Martin Short
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White
“The Bear” (FX)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actor (Limited/TV Movie)

Colin Farrell
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Paul Giamatti
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
Stephen Graham ***
“Adolescence” (Netflix)
Brian Tyree Henry
“Dope Thief” (Apple TV+)
Cooper Koch
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actress (Drama)

Kathy Bates ***
“Matlock” (CBS)
Britt Lower
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Melanie Lynskey
“Yellowjackets” (Paramount+)
Elisabeth Moss
“The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
Bella Ramsey
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Keri Russell
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actress (Comedy)

Kristen Bell
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Quinta Brunson
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Ayo Edebiri
“The Bear” (FX)
Bridget Everett
“Somebody Somewhere” (HBO/Max)
Jean Smart ***
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Lead Actress (Limited/TV Movie)

Cate Blanchett
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
Cristin Milioti ***
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Ruth Negga
“Presumed Innoncent” (Apple TV+)
Amanda Seyfried
“Long Bright River” (Peacock)
Michelle Williams
“Dying for Sex” (FX)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor (Drama)

Zach Cherry
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Walton Goggins
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Jason Isaacs
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Jack Lowden
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Young Mazino
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Sam Rockwell
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Tramell Tillman ***
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
John Turturro
“Severance” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor (Comedy)

Ike Barinholtz
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Colman Domingo
“The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
Paul W. Downs
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Harrison Ford
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach ***
“The Bear” (FX)
Tyler James Williams
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Bowen Yang
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor (Limited/TV Movie)

Javier Bardem
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
Owen Cooper ***
“Adolescence” (Netflix)
Rob Delaney
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
Rhenzy Felix
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Diego Luna
“La Máquina” (Hulu)
Wagner Moura
“Dope Thief” (Apple TV+)
Ashley Walters
“Adolescence” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress (Drama)

Patricia Arquette
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Leslie Bibb
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Carrie Coon
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Allison Janney ***
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Katherine LaNasa
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
Isabela Merced
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Genevieve O’Reilly
“Andor” (Disney+)
Parker Posey
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress (Comedy)

Liza Colón-Zayas
“The Bear” (FX)
Hannah Einbinder
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Kathryn Hahn
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Janelle James ***
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Catherine O’Hara
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Sheryl Lee Ralph
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Jessica Williams
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress (Limited/TV Movie)

Erin Doherty ***
“Adolescence” (Netflix)
Lesley Manville
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
Deirdre O’Connell
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Chloë Sevigny
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
Jenny Slate
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
Sissy Spacek
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
Christine Tremarco
“Adolescence” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>

Guest Actor (Drama)

Andy Garcia
“Landman” (Paramount+)
Scott Glenn ***
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Shawn Hatosy
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
Joel McHale
“Yellowjackets” (Paramount+)
Jeffrey Wright
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Guest Actress (Drama)

Gwendoline Christie
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Kaitlyn Dever
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Catherine O’Hara
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
Hilary Swank
“Yellowjackets” (Paramount+)
Merrit Wever ***
“Severance” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Guest Actor (Comedy)

Jon Bernthal
“The Bear” (FX)
John Cena
“The Bear” (FX)
Bryan Cranston ***
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Walton Goggins
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Ron Howard
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
Martin Scorsese
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Guest Actress (Comedy)

Jamie Lee Curtis
“The Bear” (FX)
Ariana Grande
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Melissa McCarthy
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Julianne Nicholson ***
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Kaitlin Olson
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Sarah Polley
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Talk Series

Scripted Variety

Directing (Drama)

“Andor” (Disney+)
Janus Metz, “Welcome to the Rebellion”
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max) ***
Mark Mylod, “Through the Valley”
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max)
John Wells, “7:00 A.M.”
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Jessica Lee Gagné, “Chikhai Bardo”
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
Ben Stiller, “Cold Harbor”
“Squid Game” (Netflix)
Hwang Dong-hyuk, “Friend or Foe”
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
Mike White, “Amor Fati”

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Directing (Comedy)

“The Bear” (FX)
Ayo Edebiri, “Napkins”
“The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini, “Pilot”
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
Lucia Aniello, “Big, Brave Girl”
“Mid-Century Modern” (Hulu)
James Burrows, “Here’s to You, Mrs. Schneiderman”
“The Ms. Pat Show” (BET)
Mary Lou Belli, TBA
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
John Hoffman, “Once Upon a Time in the West”
“The Studio” (Apple TV+) ***
Seth Rogen & Evan Goldberg, “The Oner”

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Directing (Limited or Anthology/TV Movie)

“Adolescence” (Netflix)
Philip Barantini, Series
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
Chris Barrett & Luke Taylor, “Eulogy”
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
Alfonso Cuarón, Series
“Dope Thief” (Apple TV+)
Ridley Scott, “Jolly Ranchers”
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
Craig Zobel, “After Hours”
“Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)
Anne Sewitsky, “The Verdict”

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Writing (Drama)

“The Agency” (Paramount+)
“The Bends” by Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth
“Andor” (Disney+)
“One Year Later” by Tony Gilroy
“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
“Through the Valley” by Craig Mazin
“Matlock” (CBS)
“Pilot” by Jennie Snyder Urman
“Severance” (Apple TV+) ***
“210: Cold Harbor” by Dan Erickson
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
“Hello Goodbye” by Will Smith
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max)
“Full-Moon Party” by Mike White

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Writing (Comedy)

“The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
“Lake House” by Tina Fey, Lang Fisher, Tracey Wigfield
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
“Big, Brave Girl” by Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, Jen Statsky
“Somebody Somewhere” (HBO/Max)
“AGG” by Hannah Bos, Paul Thureen and Bridget Everett
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
“CinemaCon” by Alex Gregory
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)
“The Golden Globes” by Peter Huyck
“The Studio” (Apple TV+) ***
“The Promotion” by Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Peter Huyck, Alex Gregory, Frida Perez
“What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
“The Finale” by Sam Johnson, Sarah Naftalis, Paul Simms

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Writing (Limited/TV Movie)

“Adolescence” (Netflix) ***
Series by Stephen Graham and Jack Thorne
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
“Common People” by Charlie Brooker
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
“Eulogy” by Charlie Brooker, Ella Road
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)
Series by Alfonso Cuarón
“Dying for Sex” (FX)
“Good Value Diet Soda” by Kim Rosenstock & Elizabeth Meriwether
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)
“After Hours” by Lauren LeFranc

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Game Show

“Celebrity Family Feud” (ABC)
“Jeopardy” (ABC) ***
“Password” (NBC)
“The Price is Right” (CBS)
“Celebrity Wheel of Fortune” (ABC)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Host (Reality/Competition)

Zach Cherry, Casey Wilson
“The Great American Baking Show” (The Roku Channel)
Alan Cumming ***
“The Traitors” (Peacock)
Kristen Kish
“Top Chef” (Bravo)
Jeff Probst
“Survivor” (CBS)
RuPaul
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Reality Competition Program

“The Amazing Race” (CBS)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
“Survivor” (CBS)
“Top Chef” (Bravo)
“The Traitors” (Peacock) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Structured Reality

“Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)
“Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives” (Food Network)
“Love is Blind” (Netflix)
“Queer Eye” (Netflix)
“Shark Tank” (ABC) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Unstructured Reality

“Below Deck Down Under” (Bravo)
“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix) ***
“RuPaul’s Drag Race Untucked” (MTV)
“Selling Sunset” (Netflix)
“Welcome to Wrexham” (FX)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Animated Program

“Arcane” (Netflix)
“Big Mouth” (Netflix) ***
“Bob’s Burgers” (Fox)
“Love, Death + Robots” (Netflix)
“The Simpsons” (Fox)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Short Form (Comedy/Drama/Variety)

“Bad Thoughts” (Netflix) ***
“The Daily Show: Desi Lydic Fox-splains” (Comedy Central)
“Good Mythical Morning” (YouTube)
“Late Night with Seth Meyers: CORRECTIONS” (NBC)
“Only Murders in the Building: One Killer Question” (Hulu)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Casting (Drama)

“The Last of Us” (HBO/Max)
“Matlock” (CBS)
“The Pitt” (HBO/Max) ***
“Severance” (Apple TV+)
“Squid Game” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Casting (Comedy)

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Bear” (FX)
“Hacks” (HBO/Max)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“The Studio” (Apple TV+) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Casting (Limited/TV Movie)

“Adolescence” (Netflix)
“Black Mirror” (Netflix)
“La Máquina” (Hulu)
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix) ***
“The Penguin” (HBO/Max)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Variety Special (Live)

“Beyoncé Bowl” (Netflix)
“The Oscars” (ABC) ***
“The 67th Grammy Awards” (CBS)
“SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)
“SNL50: The Homecoming Concert” (Peacock)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

“Adam Sandler: Love You” (Netflix)
“Ali Wong: Single Lady” (Netflix) ***
“Brett Goldstein: The Second Best Night of Your Life” (HBO/Max)
“The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame: Induction 2024” (ABC)
“Sarah Silverman: Post Mortem” (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Documentary (Series)

“30 for 30” (ESPN)
“100 Foot Wave” (HBO/Max)
“Number One on the Call Sheet” (Apple TV+) ***
“SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night” (Peacock)
“Social Studies” (FX)

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Documentary (Special)

“Beatles ’64” (Disney+)
“¡Casa Bonita Mi Amor!” (Paramount+)
“Martha” (Netflix)
“Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band” (Hulu)
“Pee-Wee as Himself” (HBO/Max) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

Hosted Nonfiction

“Conan O’Brien Must Go” (HBO/Max)
“Eva Longoria: Searching for Spain” (CNN)
“Finding Your Roots with Henry Louis Gates, Jr.” (PBS)
“My Next Guest Needs No Introduction with David Letterman” (Netflix)
“Tucci in Italy” (National Geographic) ***

Emmy category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon

More Information

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.